RATINGS GENERAL EXPLANATION AND HELP
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We’ve often been asked which of the joint second tops are to be preferred. The answer is not always welcome: Neither. Both are equal and listed in race card number. But though preference is justifiably subjective, we have frequently been offered solutions by our subscribers. These come in seven sections – which I’ll detail after the list with my thoughts and will also show my (sort of) preferences:
1: Shortest SP or overnight forecast.
2: Highest Speed Rating.
3: Best backed on the day.
4: Trainerform
5: Jockeyform.
6: Trainer/Jockey combination.
7: Other sources.
You may have others which you would prefer to use. All I can say is whichever you might consider to use, each of the above has a similar success rate of approximately 50%.
When I’ve finished the first arduous run through of compiling, I am often left with up to 6 horses on the same top mark, sometimes more. This is a natural consequence of handicapping – especially in handicap races where, in theory, every horse is handicapped to dead heat. So, I then have to go back to re-read form to separate them in the listings. I do so with the intent of having a clear top rated but never having more than two horses joint second top and never more than four horses in the top three rating marks (excepting the exceedingly rare clerical error, of course).
So, though the second tops are not differentiated, they are preferred to the rest of the field bar the top rated. I would urge everyone who uses our ratings to always consider the top three rated marks. The majority of wins will come from the top two rated but the strike rate increases significantly if you also seriously consider the occasional third top rated – especially with an eye on the betting market. Here are brief details of the above sections to discover the preferred second top.
1: Shortest SP or overnight forecast.
Basically, a straightforward approach requiring zero effort. Either you choose according to the overnight forecast or you choose according to the live market. Joint prices could create a problem here.
2: Highest Speed Rating.
Another approach using zero effort. Again, joint speed ratings could create a problem.
3: Best backed on the day.
This could be either the best backed before racing or the best backed in the live market.
4: Trainerform.
Which to choose: form over the last seven days, the last fourteen days or the last couple of days. In the Racing Post they provide an RTF rating for the trainers, a percentage figure shown in superscript beside the trainer’s name on the racecard. The RTF is a measure of that trainer’s horses Running To Form according to the Racing Post Ratings figure the horse was given on the day of a race. In some cases, a trainer will have a high RTF over fourteen days but his horses may be performing averagely or badly during the past five or six days. So, you need to check with the Racing Post or with other results providers to ascertain the actual up to date form of a trainer. This is not complicated; you just need to click on the trainer on the Racing Post website and the pop-up box will give every one of the trainer’s runners in the past fourteen days. Using this gives you a clearer idea of how a trainer is performing the past few days.
5: Jockeyform.
Similar to Trainerform except there is no (as yet) RTF for jockeys; so, the pop-up box on the Racing Post Website will give the best help. On the far right you’ll see a column that clarifies how well horses are running under a particular rider. You may get a plus figure, a minus figure or a blank hyphen. Plenty of positive numbers, hyphens and low minus numbers show a rider is riding at or close to his best. But beware, sometimes you’ll see a string of hyphens for the past couple of days which means they haven’t yet been updated.
6: Trainer/Jockey combination.
As it says on the box. You can find which combinations are successful using the Racing Post Trainer pop-up box. Click on the Stats tab and from there you can filter til your hearts content. You can check which jockeys have ridden for the trainer in which type of race during individual years for the past five years. Other racing providers have similar recent day’s information such as the Sporting Life and Sky Sports. Whatever your preference here, it can be a useful pointer.
7: Other sources.
I would urge everyone never to rely on a single source for your betting, not even Towerform. It makes absolute sense to have one or more other sources. This could be a newspaper or a horse betting service. It is a good way of confidently consolidating your selections. But never, ever, pile straight in to any handicap or other ratings service and start blindly backing every top rated offered, nor should you ever back in ten races just because there are twenty races on offer. That is a certain route to the poor house. Instead, specialise in certain types of races; sprinters, milers, stayers, two-mile chases, novice hurdlers, races of twelve runners or less, etc. Whatever type of race you choose, by specialising you not only reduce the number of bets but also reduce the losing runs because, over time, your specialisation makes you almost expert in the types of races you choose.
We occasionally offer Free Trials. And we always tell potential subscribers to have a good look at Towerform and check if there is any way they can incorporate the ratings into their betting. Remember, handicap, speed or other ratings are not tips, they are simply guides to the relative chances of a horse in the race it is contesting.
The best and safest way to approach ratings free trials of any kind is to monitor them without having a bet. If you can find a successful way to use them, all well and good. If you can’t it is best – even in our case – not to subscribe. It is not our aim to make money out of subscribers simply by offering the ratings. It is our sole aim to help, not to send to the poor house. This should go for any service you are attracted to. Every service will have good days, indifferent days, poor days. What you should always do is monitor and check on their consistency and how many indifferent or poor days they have. Ours are fairly consistent and we expect to have between two and four, occasionally five indifferent or bad days each month (50% or less top two strike rate). So, my best advice is for you to monitor results closely and think very seriously before you subscribe to anyone.
As I indicated earlier, the methods of separating the joint second top are much of a muchness if taken singly. They all approximate an overall 50% success rate. But a combination could increase that success rate. My simplest answer to the quandary would be simply go with the one where your form reading leads you. Not an answer that will please everyone but it is both the truest and safest approach.
My preferences (without other sources), if I had one, would be to combine two or more of the seven options. In passing, I would advise you always consider the third tops if you are considering joint third tops. Research leads me to Speed Ratings, Trainerform, Jockeyform and Trainer/Jockey combination. These may not be 100% successful but the success rate does improve. If you can tick three of the four boxes, then I would suggest you go with that.
As I mentioned earlier, your own form reading might easily be good enough without having to filter the four I have preferred. Remember one thing: if you are a regular bettor, your form reading is very likely as good as anyone else’s. You might think pundits are better than you but don’t ever think that again. They see and evaluate the same form as you do. It is a simple case of their opinion – or our opinion - against your opinion. And if you ever check this assertion out, you’ll be surprised at how good a form reader you are compared to others. I have said many times, the difference between enjoyment, profit and loss is discipline; the latter should be foremost in your approach.
